But that makes my point even more strongly. The guy who won the pot played terrifically... taking his free card on the flop against a greedy preflop raiser; not raising on the turn and keeping the pot small because he suspects the preflop raiser has either a big hand (which will get him a river bet he can raise if the board does not pair but only a smallish bet if it does) or drawing dead (like with 77); then a good raise on the river where he does NOT raise to bust his opponent (which always makes it easier to get a call).
In contrast, if this person was a post-fishy player (or even a good player not playing deceptively) certain things would have occurred... anyone with QQ would have reraised pre-flop. This again is something some of you guys are ignoring -- it's EXTREMELY unlikely that the preflop caller could have QQ. Yes, TT and 99 are possible calls, but again, most often they would have reraised preflop. So the seventh nuts is really the best possible hand to call the river.
Then on the flop after the AA checks, how often would a straightforward/good or fishy player check the 99? What is the point of only calling a preflop raiser with 99 if when you hit a 9 on the flop WITH and Ace and then you check? This combination seldom happens, certainly less than 10% of the time.
So we can rule out 99, meaning on the river quads also can not be called by the 8th nuts.
The single, solitary hand quads can beat on the river than can plausibly call is TT... but even then, TT is very unlikely since the TT would not have raised the turn, nor bet the flop when checked to him.
This is a hugely negative expectation bet because the seventh nuts is the only plausible hand that can call, and it is less than 50% likely that the seventh nuts would have played his hand this way, and it would be terrible to have done so and then called the river.
The exact numbers aren't important, but 90% of the time the raise will be called by the straight flush, 10% of the time by TT or somebody overlooking their hand or with something other than TT.
And then finally, this is a tournament, not a ring game. The death sentence of being eliminated should always influence you to not make bets that will bust you unless the math is way, way on your side. No matter what, extracting a call of a reraise on the river from the seventh nuts is really, really hard so this all-in move flirts with the risk of elimination for what will never be very likely (extracting a call from the seventh nuts via a reraise on the river).
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Added, if you do only call you will be respected by good players and targeted by the fish. that's always heaven.
Then the unspoken issue... how many people here would have raised 8500 on the river with TT? People do play horrible, but the confluence of horridness here is overwhelming to get TT into a position where it calls an all-in reraise on the river after raising a baby boat .
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