Ouch

[PPP]

Originally Posted by themike537

Lol. There's no way I'm just calling that river with quad Aces, all my money is going in. There's so many hands he could have that he'd call the preflop raise (9's, 10's, lower suited diamonds, etc). To just call on the river there is atrocious.

So many hands? That he'd call a 850 preflop raise and play that way on the turn?

Sorry, raising with quad aces there is a total sucker move. It can not win one dollar.

If the person had QQ, the best possible hand, he would have had to... not raise before the flop, not bet a perfect flop (flop a set when it comes an ace), not raise the turn when it comes the most troubling card in the deck (makes the most straights, sets up a flush draw), and then make a smallish raise on the river with the SIXTH nuts, when logical hands the opponent could have would include AQ, AT and A9, then expect to be called by a hand he could beat.

Going broke with that hand on the river is terrible, tunnelvision poker, and it certainly is no bad beat. It's like reraising all-in on the river with the 8d on a 9dTdJdQd2s board. All you can do is lose.

[zaghomat]

Lol PPP. If your serious and this is not a level, stick to affiliates stuff and don't talk about poker strategy... Just for fun try to post what you said on 2+2 and see what kind of answer you'll get.

[scottmc]

Originally Posted by zaghomat

Lol PPP. If your serious and this is not a level, stick to affiliates stuff and don't talk about poker strategy... Just for fun try to post what you said on 2+2 and see what kind of answer you'll get.

Basically the only reason to raise all-in on the river is if:
1) You will get a weaker hand to call.
2) You will get a stronger or equal hand to fold.

With the second nuts only 1) applies as the nuts will never fold. Therefore PPP analysis is correct, there is almost zero probability that a weaker hand is going to call this all-in river raise.

[Ridge]

PPP I know you know your stuff man, have won a bracelet, and have played these big tournaments for years. Now days it is way different and with all the fish in the field I don't know if i could keep from stacking off with quads there. Maybe 10 years ago you could find a fold and put him on a royal, but man that's so hard to do and most of us aren't WSOP champs with that kind of reading ability.

Also looking back I can see how you say "yeah I only get called by the one better hand" but jeesh man it's a tough one..

[PPP]

Originally Posted by zaghomat

Lol PPP. If your serious and this is not a level, stick to affiliates stuff and don't talk about poker strategy... Just for fun try to post what you said on 2+2 and see what kind of answer you'll get.

I explained the reasoning, which is pretty obvious to anyone who has played poker successfully. Of course there are always fish who only fixate on their hands and see what they have, not caring what their opponents have, or could have.

Basically you have to be a seriously poor player if you think you can re-raise all-in on an obvious board and expect the sixth nuts (who has already raised you) to call the raise, especially in a situation where there is no bluffing hand to represent.

And that is all without the super-obvious point that you don't win tournaments by reraising on the river with the second nuts. You really have to have serious gills to reraise the river with the second nut flush. This is just the near equivalent of that.

[PPP]

Originally Posted by Ridge

PPP I know you know your stuff man, have won a bracelet, and have played these big tournaments for years. Now days it is way different and with all the fish in the field I don't know if i could keep from stacking off with quads there. Maybe 10 years ago you could find a fold and put him on a royal, but man that's so hard to do and most of us aren't WSOP champs with that kind of reading ability.

Also looking back I can see how you say "yeah I only get called by the one better hand" but jeesh man it's a tough one..

I didn't say fold. That is no option. The poor play is RERAISING the second nuts, and doing so for (given the stage of the tournament) was an amount that made no sense. He committed suicide via a negative expectation bet.

(If he went allin for $100 more, okay fine, that would be different, but even $500 more would have been foolish -- especially since he was clearly being milked... the opponent raised 8500, so we have to presume the AA guy didn't have 9000; more likely he had at least 15k or so when faced with an 8500 bet.)

-- another point, if his hand was AQ, the reraise would have been far more sensible.

[Ridge]

I might have missed what stage in the tournament this was in. Was it late, middle, or early? that does have an impact as well. I just have trouble not stacking off with quad aces when there are so many other hands that he calls with and losses. Also, I don't know either of these player, they may be well known pros or something. Against your average donk of an opponent, I'm stacking off 9 out of 10 times..

[adioking]

First of all, Ridge has a point. More factors are in play than the cut and dry situation that was posted here.

Yep, calling is the correct play in that situation. What a lot of people here are missing is that he had all the aces in his hand, so nobody could have aces full of anything, thus making an all-in call with queens full a play only the weakest of players would make.

However, I do have to note that the players in the main event play atrociously. I've never seen more dead money in such a high buy-in tournament. You've got way better players playing in the $25k Bellagio Five Diamond as well as the $5k WSOP events (for some weird reason). Sure, you've got nearly every notable pro playing in the Main event. However, there is so much dead money from internet qualifiers and rich people (like Jose Canseco's wife, Shannon Elizabeth, Jerry Buss, etc.) that skipping this tournament would be sinful.

Personally, I've encountered a lot of fish, but none of them will commit themselves to an all-in with a weak hand on the river. You have to get their chips on the flop if you're looking to score them all. That's the only place that people want to gamble, simply because they figure that they have a big hand / draw and peeling additional cards is typically a bad thing for weak players.

[Brandon]

Did you play Dan? If so how did you do buddy?

[adioking]

Ya, I bought straight in and I'm about double the average chip stack with 66,500 chips. About half of the field is gone and I have enough chips to hold an average until we cut in half one more time. I'd imagine that I'll be around for day three unless I get caught up in a bad hand. The most I had was about 71,000 chips but I got caught calling a value bet into a big pot.

I'm thinking about posting on my blog about Day 1 sometime today...