Ouch - Page 5

Andy Poker.Vg · #41 () 07-09-2008, 08:12 PM

no this isnt a way ahead way behind situation on the turn. Your applying the wrong theory.

If you have the nuts and your 90% certain your opponent has a decent made hand or a strong draw. You should bet. There is nothing you can argue here. This is not the time to be playing a way ahead way behind style, its also not a situation to be slowplaying.

You should slowplay when you have a lock hand and you beleive your opponent is going to bet because he doesnt have a hand at all. From the texture of this board its obvious your opponent has a hand. You should not be trying to induce, you should be trying to bet. I have run the hand through numerous professionals and they think your stupid also.

The only possible situation you should check is with intention to checkraise, commiting a large enough proportion of your stack that a river fold is impossible for yourself. But this isnt what your saying is right. Your intention is to check call and let yourself get drawn out on.

The first thing a poker player should learn is you should be trying to get as much money in when your ahead, and as little as possible in when your behind. Its obvious you havent grasped this at all. The argument that you should check call the turn incase he draws out on you is a class newbie mistake.

Have a nice day in your deluded world. It must be nice to think your always right.

PPP · #42 () 07-10-2008, 12:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andy Poker.Vg

The first thing a poker player should learn is you should be trying to get as much money in when your ahead, and as little as possible in when your behind. Its obvious you havent grasped this at all. The argument that you should check call the turn incase he draws out on you is a class newbie mistake.

Fortunately we all get to choose to play how we want, but you are not understanding the basic idea of poker. "to get as much money in when your ahead" is not the first thing a poker player should learn, nor should it ever be learned. "Ahead" is no concept at all. Expectation is the only concept. For example, if someone is ahead, and an opponent has more outs to win, getting more money in is negative expectation play. In some games you can contrive a situation where the person ahead on the turn could literally be drawing on the river. So "ahead" is no criteria for betting.

The single criteria for betting is what is the best +EV. This is normally a longrun consideration, but sometimes there is no longer run than a current tournament situation.

Automatically moving in here, if we presume the player has a powerful hand like AA or QQ, which is a good read based on his actions, is a mistake that a weaker or less experienced player will make. Yes, raising is +EV, but often it is not the most +EV play, considering the opponent.

It should be obvious that if the opponent will call 100% of the time on the river when we movein on the river when we have only called the turn, but will bet less than allin if the board pairs on the river, that then it is clearly the right play to not move in, yet. If the opponent is more complex of a player, then another action might be correct. The correct action though is to make the best possible action based on discerning the expected value of the different choices we have, not because we are simplistically "ahead" at this moment.

adioking · #43 () 07-10-2008, 05:06 AM

Okay, first of all... I agree with PPP whole-heartedly, which is not to be taken too lightly. I am am successfully beating 10/20NL and 25/50NL games in Las Vegas and I think that alone qualifies me to provide my response.

The thing that most of you are missing is that tournament poker is completely different than cash games. Most of you seem to be applying responses that would normally be seen in cash games. For example, "always get your money in ahead" is a completely incorrect theory for tournament poker. Let's say there are 301 players left, and the top 300 pay. You have QQ and are faced with a 4x raise from early position by a person who has you stacked. You have 12x BB left in your stack, are you going to want to shove it all in? You might gain a 10% chance of getting to a higher paying spot if you win the pot. However, if you fold, you're almost certain that another player at another table will bust out and put you into the money. So, the real deal is that you have a 100% chance of cashing lets say $10,000 or you could improve your chances of possibly winning $13,500 if you play the coin flip and win. The real question is, why would you flip a 55/45 for a 35% increase in winnings? You could know for sure that you're getting your money in good... lets say vs. AKo and you're ahead by a few percent. Big deal... all you should care about in a tournament is a) Surviving and then b) accumulating chips.

Anyways, in a tournament, you want to keep your variance down. You can't be involved in tons of big pots becuase you're exposing yourself to a high standard deviation, one that will likely put you out of the tournament. If you will notice, most of the pros that played day 1 of this year's Main Event had between 55k and 90k at the end of the day, while chipleaders had as much as 210,000. That has a lot to do with EV itself actually, because if you pool the players with a high variance you will notice that they began the day with let's say 2 million chips, but adding them together will show you that as a whole 2/3 of them are knocked out and 1/3 of them hold just 1 million chips. However, 2/3 of the pros survived but if you look at them as a whole they were able to take their starting 2 million and reach 3 million.

So, although I'm sure that explained my point poorly, the point of the story is that PPP is right when saying that the player made a smart play by keeping the pot as small as possible. In addition to that, there are so many different variables involved in poker that it would be impossible to analyze everything fully without actually being there. Such factors as how often XYZ has raised, how tight/loose and aggressive/passive each player is, which players have "control" over which players etc. all matters quite a bit. However, the most important piece of this particular hand is the preflop action. Bets and raises preflop are such a major indicator when mixed with the knowledge of the type of player that is making each move.

What's also really important in the particular hand is that you have all the aces... so there is no possible way for anybody have have aces full of anything. This is also an indicator of what somebody may have preflop... they obviously weren't acting with a big ace... so now you have to ask yourself what their possible hands are considering this factor.

In PPP's defense, he actions aren't an "old school" way of playing poker. In fact, the play of moving all-in with quads probably would have been much more profitable in earlier years. Nobody really knew how to play poker very well back then, and the pro would easily be able to identify those who did. Nowadays, I'm sitting here stuck at a table with 8 other players who are all very aggressive and know how to read a board pretty damn well. Considering that players have improved over the last 5 years, it's a better play to NOT raise with the quad aces now that it would have been in the years prior to the poker boom.

-----

Day 3 here I come...

Started the day with 65,600, but had a really cold streak all day and am now down to 51,000. My high for the day was 91,000 and the final blinds of the day ended at 600/1200 with a 200 ante.

Andy Poker.Vg · #44 () 07-10-2008, 06:18 AM

I guess i probably play them wrong but to be honest. I am primarily a cash game player.

I dont give a shit about surving, alot more about accumulating chips. Thats how i have final tabled sunday majors about 5times in the last 12 months.

You can play many different ways to win, i just believe my way is fundamentally correct. Also any of the stuff you said about situational play on the bubble is all well and good but it doesnt apply to this situation. Also with QQ with 12bb. If the guy is a bik stack and hes has a wide arrange (or you know hes raising alot on the bubble) then i am getting those chips in there as fast as possible. However if hes a total nit and you know his range is basically AA KK AK QQ and maybe JJ then im mucking. I find that thers alot more value in getting deeper to just cashing. I suppose its different to most people since $10k is alot more then $215 but in theory, it should make no difference.