Ouch

[Ridge]

Ah Todd Jesus, either add somehting or don't post.

There is a rational argument for both. I've played and won at online poker since 2004. that's how I got into being an affiliate. I know poker, maybe not as well as PPP, but I play 5/10 online and live when I get the chance. There is no absolute answer to 99% of most poker situations. If someone tried to tell you there is, then you need to speak with someone else.

Poker is not played in a vacuum and this is actually a great poker discussion thread that probably should be moved at this point.. The big issue that stands out to me is that players do not play like they did in the 80's or 90's, poker has evolved and the size of the WSOP shows that. 10 years ago you would be playing agiant 2-300 other poker pros in the ME and giving credit for a Royal would be justified. Now days that simply is not the case.

Hell, if you play poker at all now days, you knwo there are players that think "OMG, top pair all-in baby" - I have also seen player call off hundreds of dollars when they were playing the board. Time and time again new fish stack off everyday with hands they should have dumped PF, from what I've read and heard the ME is the fisiest pond on earth.

Anyway, looking back it's easy to say "yeah I knew he had a Royal Flush, he should have just called", but in reality I would imagine that putting someone on a royal and just flat calling with quads was a bit more difficult..

[punchtheclock]

Ill throw my 2 cents in here. I think PPP has a pretty strong argument here, but I think you are failing to recognize how poorly some people play. Over the long run, I think that the money you will make from smaller boats calling you, is about the same, or greater than what you will lose when you happen to run into a royal flush.

Most people won't admitt it here, but I'm not afraid to say...I'd feel pretty stupid if I smooth called with 4 aces there and he didn't have a royal flush. Some people probably weigh in the fact that they don't want to get laughed at.

On occasion I stay in high gear and hope to pick up some hands. Constantly applying pressure helps to create a table situation where my opponents will begin to make mistakes. So even if my opponent can't call me, I still see some value in putting him to the decision...it might help him crack in the future.

I could make strong arguments for either side here, but I'm starting to side with PPP because a mistake of smooth calling with the best hand is of less consequence than a mistake of raising into the nuts. Because this is the main event, survival is also more important than other tournaments. So player's who normally say they don't care about survival because there is another 10K next week might reconsider their philosophy here.

An after thought; there is also a little hidden value in smooth calling when you should have raised. Most of the table won't understand why you did this, you will then be declared "The new guy" and thus, you'll be able to abuse people later if you are actually a good player.

[PPP]

But that makes my point even more strongly. The guy who won the pot played terrifically... taking his free card on the flop against a greedy preflop raiser; not raising on the turn and keeping the pot small because he suspects the preflop raiser has either a big hand (which will get him a river bet he can raise if the board does not pair but only a smallish bet if it does) or drawing dead (like with 77); then a good raise on the river where he does NOT raise to bust his opponent (which always makes it easier to get a call).

In contrast, if this person was a post-fishy player (or even a good player not playing deceptively) certain things would have occurred... anyone with QQ would have reraised pre-flop. This again is something some of you guys are ignoring -- it's EXTREMELY unlikely that the preflop caller could have QQ. Yes, TT and 99 are possible calls, but again, most often they would have reraised preflop. So the seventh nuts is really the best possible hand to call the river.

Then on the flop after the AA checks, how often would a straightforward/good or fishy player check the 99? What is the point of only calling a preflop raiser with 99 if when you hit a 9 on the flop WITH and Ace and then you check? This combination seldom happens, certainly less than 10% of the time.

So we can rule out 99, meaning on the river quads also can not be called by the 8th nuts.

The single, solitary hand quads can beat on the river than can plausibly call is TT... but even then, TT is very unlikely since the TT would not have raised the turn, nor bet the flop when checked to him.

This is a hugely negative expectation bet because the seventh nuts is the only plausible hand that can call, and it is less than 50% likely that the seventh nuts would have played his hand this way, and it would be terrible to have done so and then called the river.

The exact numbers aren't important, but 90% of the time the raise will be called by the straight flush, 10% of the time by TT or somebody overlooking their hand or with something other than TT.

And then finally, this is a tournament, not a ring game. The death sentence of being eliminated should always influence you to not make bets that will bust you unless the math is way, way on your side. No matter what, extracting a call of a reraise on the river from the seventh nuts is really, really hard so this all-in move flirts with the risk of elimination for what will never be very likely (extracting a call from the seventh nuts via a reraise on the river).

-----
Added, if you do only call you will be respected by good players and targeted by the fish. that's always heaven.


Then the unspoken issue... how many people here would have raised 8500 on the river with TT? People do play horrible, but the confluence of horridness here is overwhelming to get TT into a position where it calls an all-in reraise on the river after raising a baby boat .

[hazo]

Wow great response, I was undecided like most but now I have to agree with you. Plus my head really hurts from all those long responses

[Georgia Poker]

Originally Posted by hazo

Wow great response, I was undecided like most but now I have to agree with you. Plus my head really hurts from all those long responses

Careful with the short posts, Ridge may yell at you

[Ridge]

Great post PPP. Like I said, I know you know you're stuff. I've started a discussion on my forum to see what everyone has to say. I'm always willing to learn and be wrong. PPP - Do you mind if I copy and paste your analysis onto my forum for discussion?? I'm sure I can't get you to visit, but I think you have some great points, even though I'm not convinced I'm open to them..

You have a great argument though, but I suspect you could convince us that the sky is green too.

Todd- Come back when you can finally add something of value to the forum ok??

Edit; Took my forum link out

[PPP]

I'd prefer you not paste the post onto another forum, nor link to here. This is for us, not general discussion.

Thanks for asking tho.

[Ridge]

Originally Posted by PPP

I'd prefer you not paste the post onto another forum, nor link to here. This is for us, not general discussion.

Thanks for asking tho.

I understand, thanks..

[Andy Poker.Vg]

Originally Posted by PPP

I like how the KJ played the turn. he kept the pot small so if the board paired he would have only lost a few thousand, but he seemed to know he could bust the greedy guy if it bricked on the end. His plan only fails if it comes a K or J on the river and it kills the action.

Do you realise how fundamentally wrong this is. When you have the best hand you want to be getting money in.

The board is so coordinated its obvious your opponent has a hand, two pair or a set atleast. When you have the nuts at this point, you dont want to check "incase a bad card comes" you want to be getting money in the pot. Anyone who doesn't advocate betting this street seriously is inept at poker.

And before you taint my poker career aswell as my professional credibility. I have been playing professionally for the the last year online. Ive final tabled several big sunday tournaments and have won over $100k playing no higher then 2/4 online cash and played over a million cash hands in the last 12 months. Im a subscriber to numerous poker training sites, and have read more or less every poker book in existance. You are fundamentally wrong.

[PPP]

Originally Posted by Andy Poker.Vg

Do you realise how fundamentally wrong this is. When you have the best hand you want to be getting money in. .

That's silly. You want to bet your money with the best positive expectation.

Even a rank novice knows that sometimes "getting money in" is not the right action, like checking a hand to induce a bluff from a player who would never call a bet.

Here we have a pretty classic case of a scenario where if we lose, we'll lose 2500, but if we win we'll win win 11,000 (or more if the AA suicides himself all in).

If you have never heard of slowplaying, you might want to look it up.

(And please stop with the weirdo comments about professional credibility. You posted about that, not me.)